2. Data
2.1 When we undertook the original modelling work, we relied on information on applicants in the non-contributory parent visa queue. The fact that the CPV has now been in operation for a number of years means that there is data available on the actual entrants.
2.2 DIAC provided unit record data on the 3,500 entrants under the CPV in each financial year from 2003/04 to 2006/07. The data for 2003/04 did not include a visa application identifier for onshore applicants which meant that it was not possible to determine the family units for this group. However, for the three subsequent years, the data was complete and appeared sensible. In particular, the experience in each of the three years was quite consistent in terms of the distribution between different family types and average age of applicants.
2.3 The following table summarises the data for each of the three years used.
| 2004/05 | 2005/06 | 2006/07 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of family units | |||
| Single parent | 1,024 | 1,008 | 978 |
| Couple | 1,038 | 1,030 | 1,033 |
| Single parent with children | 59 | 68 | 59 |
| Couple with children | 92 | 96 | 107 |
| Total number of applications | 2,213 | 2,202 | 2,177 |
| Average age of principal | |||
| Single parent | 64.2 | 63.6 | 62.9 |
| Couple | 62.8 | 62.7 | 62.8 |
| Single parent with children | 53.8 | 51.7 | 52.1 |
| Couple with children | 54.8 | 53.4 | 53.0 |
2.4 As the characteristics of the intake populations looked relatively stable from year to year, we were quite comfortable in assuming that future intakes would be in line with what has been observed in the past. We ran our model using the actual populations from each of the three years and the results were extremely similar. We have used the average of the three outcomes as our final estimates.
2.5 In order to set the assumptions used in the models, we relied on data and advice from a variety of sources, including:
- the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW);
- spending on hospitals and aged care– hospital separation rates– long term rates of health expenditure inflation
- the Health Insurance Commission;
- Medicare benefits by age
- the Department of Health and Ageing
- Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme spending by age
- the Productivity Commission;
- age related per capita health expenditure – age related usage rates of aged care and per capita costs of aged care
- Centrelink;
- eligibility and income test arrangements for age pensions– qualitative advice on the operation of the Assurance of Support
- the Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs;
- qualitative advice on the relationship between age and pension entitlement
- the Australian Taxation Office; and
- advice on the tax treatment of foreign nationals resident in Australia
- the Treasury
- data on Commonwealth health expenditure by age
2.6 It should be noted that no data was available that related specifically to the population groups being modelled and that we have therefore relied on the experience of the population as a whole.
2.7 Further details on the assumptions adopted are provided in the following section.
Next: 3. Assumptions
Previous: 1. Introduction
Return to: Table of Contents