Australian Government, Australian Government Actuary

5. Results

5.1 The model produces estimates of cashflows in nominal dollars over the next sixty years split between health costs, pension costs, aged care costs and other costs. These cashflows can be discounted to generate a present value of outlays. The model also calculates the cashflows and present value of estimated revenue split between the first and second visa application charges. Note that the model considers the costs associated with a single cohort rather than the total cost of successive cohorts.

5.2 The following table shows the present (discounted) value of the various types of future expenditure, together with the percentage that they represent of total future expenditure. These figures relate to a population of 3,423 adults who would be liable to pay the second visa application charge. The remaining 77 arrivals are children aged under 18 who pay a much smaller second visa application charge.

  Present Value of Expenditure ($m) Percentage of Total
Health 524 59%
Income Support 276 31%
Aged Care 76 9%
Other 9 1%
Total 884 100%

Note that columns may not add due to rounding

5.3 The pattern of cashflows contributing to these estimates is shown in the following chart. Note that these are shown as nominal dollars and have not been discounted to give a present value.

The pattern of cashflows contributing to these estimates

5.4 The effect of the ten year exclusion period from income support benefits is clearly visible as is the effect of increasing health and aged care expenditure as the population ages.

5.5 The projected revenue from the visa application charges in nominal and discounted values is shown in the following table split between the first and second instalments. Note that for those transitioning from a temporary to permanent visa, all charges associated with the transition are treated as part of the second instalment.

Instalment Year 1 Revenue
($m)		 Year 3 Revenue
($m)		 Present Value
($m)
First 3 0 3
Second 98 11 104
Total 101 11 108

Note that columns may not add due to rounding.

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